What does the Cone of Uncertainty illustrate?

The Cone of Uncertainty illustrates how the knowledge about a product evolves and becomes clearer over time as development progresses. Initially, when a project starts, there is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding various aspects such as requirements, design, and estimated delivery dates. As the team gathers more information through feedback, iteration, and engagement with stakeholders, their understanding deepens, thereby narrowing the cone.

This concept emphasizes that early estimates and plans are bound to have a larger degree of variance due to incomplete knowledge. As more details are revealed through ongoing development, the scope for potential outcomes narrows, leading to more accurate estimates and increased confidence in the project’s direction. The Cone of Uncertainty serves as a visual representation of this journey from uncertainty to clarity, making it a valuable tool for teams to communicate the inherent risks and variances within the development process over time.